2016 Marketing
These are the spring insurance prices for corn for the last 6 years.
2011 $6.01
2012 $5.68
2013 $5.65
2014 $4.62
2015 $4.15
2016 $3.88 (MTD)
This could be a challenging marketing year. It does help highlight the fact that $4.00 to $4.50 Dec Corn futures could be a good place to price new crop corn.
A few things to think about when doing market planning.
Improbable things happen a lot, when given enough chances.
Make a decision based not just on the most likely future,but on the cloud of all possible futures, with attention to the ones that are most likely and which ones are not.
Regression to the mean is a mathematical fact. That dictum would mean that $6.00 corn is not a likely long term scenario.
Producers don’t plan to fail, but at times fail to plan.